Čovek čije je ime Ford instalirao je 1913. godine prve montažne linije u automobilskoj industriji, tako da može masovno da proizvodi svoj inovativni Model T automobila. Nešto više od veka kasnije, drugi čovek po imenu Ford upozorava kako bi automatizacija mogla da dovede do krize nezaposlenosti kakvu svet nikada nije video. In 1913 a man named Ford rigged up the first automotive assembly line so he could mass produce his innovative Model T car. A little over a century later, another man named Ford is warning of how automation could lead to an unemployment crisis the likes of which the world has never seen.

Ironija za mene nije izgubila smisao kada je Fajnenšel tajms dodelio nagradu „Poslovna knjiga godine“ Martinu Fordu za knjigu „Uspon robota“. Ford nudi detaljan i često uznemirujući uvid u budućnost rada i odražava sve veću nelagodnost o uticaju automatizacije na poslove. The irony was not lost on me when the Financial Times awarded its Business Book of the Year award to Martin Ford for Rise of the Robots. Ford offers a detailed and often disturbing insight into the future of work and reflects growing unease about the impact of automation on jobs.

Univerzitet u Oksfordu procenjuje da bi 47 odsto američkih radnih mesta moglo biti automatizovano u naredne dve decenije. Može biti pomalo frustrirajuće da je bilo potrebno da osnivač Silikonske doline, firme za razvoj, ponovi ono što sindikati godinama poručuju poslovnom svetu, a to je da se okupe i preduzmu nešto, ali je pozitivna stvar to da je pitanje poslova ponovo na dnevnom redu. Oxford University estimates that 47 percent of U.S. jobs could be automated within the next two decades. It can be somewhat frustrating that it takes the founder of a Silicon Valley development firm to repeat what trade unions have been saying for years for the business world to sit up and take notice, but it is a positive thing that jobs are back on the agenda.

Automatizacijom će verovatno biti najviše pogođeni poslovi oni u sektoru usluga, ali su takođe, prema Fordu, „skoro svi poslovi belih kragni, koji podrazumevaju sedenje ispred kompjutera i manipulisanje informacijama“ pod tom pretnjom. Danas, u sektoru usluga osećaju efekte kognitivno naprednih mašina koje zamenjuju ljude radnika - samouslužni pultovi, online bankarske usluge i elektronska trgovina su neki od primera. Takvi pomaci mogu da izblede do beznačajnosti u poređenju kada revolucija u automatizaciji pogodi naša radna mesta u naredne dve decenije i Fordova knjiga daje neke primere šta možemo očekivati. The jobs likely to be most affected by automation will be those in the service sector but according to Ford, “nearly any white-collar job that involves sitting in front of a computer manipulating information” is also under threat. Today, services are feeling the effects of cognitively advanced machines replacing human workers - self-service checkouts, online banking services and e-commerce are a few examples. Such advances could pale into insignificance when a revolution in automation hits our workplaces in the next two decades and Ford’s book gives some examples of what we can expect.

Uzmimo kao primer pokretanja sistema u San Francisku, kojim je u potpunosti automatizovana proizvodnju gurmanskih hamburgera, brzinom od 360 pljeskavice na sat. 4,1 milion ljudi radi u SAD u prehrambenoj industriji brze hrane. Mekdonalds je treći najveći poslodavac nacije. Sa prosečnom starošću od 29 godina, mnogi od ovih radnika imaju porodice o kojima brinu, troškove za pokrivanje brige o deci i troškove stanovanja. Take, for example, the San Francisco startup that has fully automated the production of gourmet hamburgers at a rate of 360 burgers per hour. 4.1 million people work in the U.S. fast food industry. McDonald's is the nation's third-largest employer. With an average age of 29 years, many of these workers have families to support, childcare costs to cover and rent to pay.

Takođe možemo očekivati revoluciju u radnom prostoru maloprodaje. Amazon, koji je predvodio glavni digitalni kapitalista Džef Bezos, dominira onlajn tržištem i preuzima poslove iz prodavnica i skladišta – pri čemu, u teoriji, u tome nije ništa loše. Međutim, uvođenje sistema Kiva robotike u skladištima Amazona znači da su roboti već u stanju da pronađu predmete i prenesu ih do jednog ljudskog radnika da to zapakuje. Bezosov dosije o radničkim pravima je stigao ove godine do Harvardov poslovnog časopisa, kada su ga na njihovoj listi najboljih izvršnih direktora bacili sa prvog na osamdeset sedmo mesto zbog načina njegovog ophođenja prema životnoj sredini, društvenom i korporativnom upravljanju. We can also expect the retail workspace to be revolutionized. Amazon, led by chief digital capitalist Jeff Bezos, dominates the online market and takes jobs out of shops and into warehouses - nothing wrong with that in theory. However, Amazon’s introduction of the KIVA robotics system into its warehouses means that robots are already able to locate items and bring them to a single human worker to package. Bezos’ labor rights record was rumbled by Harvard Business Review this year when they dropped him in their list of best performing CEOs from first to eighty-seventh due to his environmental, social and corporate governance performance.

Skromni automati za prodaju su unapređeni i sada predstavljaju ubedljivo drugu najveću pretnju sektoru maloprodaje. iPads i iPod su neke od stavki smo već u mogućnosti da kupujemo od inteligentnih automata koji postaju sve češći na aerodromima i hotelima i može se očekivati u bliskoj budućnosti da se nađu na mnogim drugim mestima. Ford je u pravu kada naglašava da će automatske mašine stvarati nova radna mesta u smislu proizvodnje i dopune magacina, ali taj broj biće minijaturan u odnosu na poslove izgubljene u prodavnicama. The humble vending machine has been upgraded and now poses arguably the second greatest threat to the retail sector. iPads and iPods are some of the items we are already able to buy from intelligent vending machines which are becoming increasingly common in airports and hotels and can be expected to be found in many other venues in the near future. Ford is right to point out that vending machines will also create jobs in terms of manufacturing and restocking, but the numbers will be minuscule when compared to those lost from the shop floor.

Možda naša nada za akcijom o ovim pitanjima leži u činjenici da će bogati takođe biti pogođeni automatizacijom. Prema časopisu Gardijan, od 2000. godine broj finansijskih radnika na Vol Stritu je opao za 50.000 - oko trećine - zbog sofisticiranog softvera za trgovanje, koji obavlja 100.000 transakcija u desetinki sekunde. Perhaps our hope for action on these issues lies in the fact that the rich will also be affected by automation. According to the Guardian, since 2000, the number of financial workers on Wall Street has fallen by 50,000 - around a third - due to sophisticated trading software which completes 100,000 transactions in a 10^th of a second.

Šta sve ovo znači? Pa jasno je već da je automatizacija ostavila manje ljudi na poslu. Pad u učešću radne snage je pao za tri odsto od 2000. godine, kaže Ford. U isto vreme, vidimo porast zahteva za socijalnu zaštitu, pogoršava se rastući jaz između produktivnosti i zarade, koja je rezultirala novim društvenom grupom poznatom kao - siromašni radnici. What does this all mean? Well it’s clear already that automation has left fewer people in work. The decline in labour participation has fallen by three percent since 2000, Ford says. At the same time we are seeing a rise in applications for social security, exacerbated by a growing gap between productivity and wages which has resulted in a new social group known as the working poor.

Fizičar Stiven Hoking upozorava da ukoliko vlasnici mašina budućnosti budu uspešni u lobiranju protiv pravednije raspodele bogatstva koje proizvode mašine, većina ljudi će završiti neslavno loše i nove tehnologije dovešće do stalnog rasta jaza između bogatih i siromašnih. Sa takvom nejednakošću, socijalni nemiri nikada nisu daleko. Ford predviđa masovnu pobunu radnika. Plutokrata Nik Hanauer upozorava da „vile dolaze“. Neizbežno je, nažalost, da ćemo videti sve veći nemir i ljude koji izlaze na ulice kada vlade ukidaju njihovu socijalnu podršku u trenutku kada je najpotrebnija. Physicist Stephen Hawking warns that if machine owners of the future successfully lobby against a fairer distribution of the machine-produced wealth, most people will end up miserably poor and new technology will drive ever-increasing gap between rich and poor. With such inequality, social unrest is never far away. Ford predicts a mass worker revolt. Plutocrat Nick Hanauer has warns that “the pitchforks are coming.” It is, sadly, inevitable that we will see growing unrest and people taking to the streets when governments are stripping away their social support at a time when it is needed most.

Ford se slaže sa osećanjem koje sam ranije ove godine izneo na Svetskoj konferenciji o porukama za budućnost rada, kada sam rekao da nam je potrebna nova mreža socijalne sigurnosti, koja obuhvata garancije osnovnih prihoda. Moramo da idemo dalje. Moramo da podignemo udeo plata u proizvedenom bogatstvu, da sledimo sprovođenje garancije plata, rodnu ravnopravnost i ograničenja zarada izvršnih direktora. Ako podignemo udeo plata i javne investicije, možemo stvoriti milione radnih mesta. Ako vratimo na zeleno naše ekonomije, možemo stvoriti još više miliona novih. Ford agrees with a sentiment I raised myself at the World Post Future of Work Conference earlier this year where I said that we needed a new social safety net which includes basic income guarantees. We need to go further. We have to lift the wage share in wealth produced, pursue living wage guarantees, gender pay equality and limits on CEO pay. If we lift the wage share and public investment we can create millions of jobs. If we refit to green our economies we can create millions more.

Neće proći dugo pre nego što roboti steknu kognitivne sposobnosti da misle, ponašaju se i reaguju kao ljudi. Šta će nova vrsta značiti našoj? It won’t be long before robots have the cognitive skills to think, act and react like humans. What does a new species mean to our own?

Mi moramo da razvijamo svoje sposobnosti zajedno sa robotima. Moramo biti u stanju da dopunimo rad kojim se bave. Moramo da evoluiramo. We must develop our own skills alongside the robots. We must be able to complement the work they do. We must evolve.

Sindikati evoluiraju, imamo više honoraraca, više stručnjaka, i nove zahteve za naše usluge. Sindikati su napredni u odgovoru na izazove bačene od strane budućeg sveta rada. Unions are evolving, we have more freelancers, more professionals, and new demands for our services.

Međutim, jasno je da je pad gustine sindikata glavni faktor u rastućim nivoima nejednakosti kada produktivnost nadmašuje plate i kada je socijalno tle uklonjeno pod našim nogama. Automatizacija će biti definišuće društveno i političko pitanje u narednoj deceniji i naš prvi prioritet je da obezbedimo da naši lideri ne pokušavaju da zataškaju ozbiljnost izazova radnih mesta i šta to može značiti za globalnu ekonomiju. However, it’s clear that the fall in trade union density is a major factor in rising levels of inequality as productivity outstrips wages and the social floor is removed from under our feet. Automation will be the defining social and political issue of the next decade and our first priority is to ensure our leaders do not try to whitewash over the seriousness of the jobs challenge and what it could mean for the global economy.

Ubrzo nakon što je Henri Ford instalirao svoje nove montažne linije, predsednik Sindikata automobilskih radnika Volter Rojter je obišao jedan od pogona. Zvaničnik kompanije je ponosno pokazao na automatske mašine i pitao Rojtera: „kako ćete da prikupljate sindikalnu članarinu od ovih ljudi?“ Rojter je odgovorio: „Kako ćete da ih navedete da kupuju Fordova vozila?“ A little while after Henry Ford had installed his new assembly lines Walter Reuther, the President of the automobile workers union, was being shown through one of the plants. A company official proudly pointed to the automatic machines and asked Reuther “how are you going to collect union dues from these guys?” Reuther replied: “How are you going to get them to buy Fords?”.

Filip Dženings će otvoriti Svetski ekonomski forum Organizacije za ekonomsku saradnju i razvoj (OECD) o politici prema budućnosti rada, koji će biti održan 14-15 januara 2016. godine u Parizu.